Private Space Flight

[Gomanson]

Well since I suggested this forum I guess I'll make the first post! One of my favorite topics is the private space industry. The thought of actually being able to go into orbit or to the moon in my lifetime gets me all starry-eyed (no pun intended.)

I think once more people discover this forum a poll on this question would be fun, but as of now I'll just ask. When do you think non-millionaire citizens will be able to buy a ticket to fly to space, to orbit Earth, to make an extended stay in orbit, and/or to leave orbit (possibly moon flybys)? Speculate, rant, give links, whatever.

[mlfj4901]

Greetings,

I hope in my lifetime!

-matt

[Gomanson]

Matt, I hope so too. From what I have read and heard, I think little 5 minute space flights will be in our lifetime as affordable as those $3,000 parabolic weightlessness flights are today. I think orbital flights will be soon to follow. There's already a "second x-prize" called America's Space Prize which should cause the same money-motivated success that the X-prize did.

I think the wonderful thing about the private space industry is that they can spring new missions up within months. With NASA and the big agencies, by the time some new technology comes out, or a mission is launched, or a vehicle built, we've known about it for 10 years. Kind of takes the suspense out of waiting for breakthroughs to happen in your lifetime. But with private industry, anything could happen at any time. I'm very excited to see what happens in the next decades!

[Starforce2]

start drinking alot of 7-up...they're giving away a free ticket to space. However, I'd want to be very sure the craft I was on didn't have a defective ceramic tile...

[Mike Fischer]

Space travel is going to first become part of the adventure travel industry. There are going to be too many risks for too long for it to be just a casual flight like hopping a plane to LA or NY.

I think there will always be risks in our lifetime--For example, I don't see how they can make atmospheric reentry a casual thing.

But... Just as ordinary people contract with companies to help them climb Everest, Ama Dablam, McKinley, or the Noth and South Poles, I think there will be companies to help you get to space as long as the government keeps their fingers out of it.

Will you have to be a millionaire? It can cost $60,000 to go to Everest and $80,000 to traverse the South Pole. Both of these have a month or two long window of opportunity in which you can go. A space flight can be done anytime weather permitting, but there are limited seats, there would be additional costs for travel to the launch sites would need to be near the equator to make orbit, and you'd need to waver any liability for problems. I've read $200,000 as a figure once and $4,000 somewhere else. Do you have to be a millionaire to pay these prices? $4000 certainly could be paid by an average person, but even a $20,000 or $50,000 fee might be raised just as sponsorships are found for other adventure travelers.

I'll take a wild stab at it and guess that we'll see tickets for a ride in space in the $10,000 range in the next decade or two.

[Dick Jacobson]

Sub-orbital spaceflight for less than $1,000,000 could be a reality in several years, but I think going into orbit will take much, much longer, probably not in our lifetimes.

Sub-orbital flight is relatively easy because it doesn't take a whole lot of energy. Just strap a modest-size rocket onto your vehicle and make sure all the pieces stay together. Richard Branson is talking about charging $200,000 for a flight into space in the vehicle that he and Burt Rutan are developing. Given the capabilities of these two guys, I think they could make it happen in 5-10 years.

Going into an orbit is a whole different ball game. It takes something like 100 times as much energy. If you don't want to spend $20 million for a seat on Soyuz, it seems to me that you've got to develop a fully reusable orbiter. Given the billions that we spent on the partially reusable Shuttle, with disappointing results, I'm not betting on that happening in the near future. Building rockets isn't like microelectronics or biotechnology. There don't appear to be any dramatic breakthroughs around the corner; all the principles are pretty well known. Chemical rockets are already near their theoretical limit of efficiency. Nuclear rockets could do better, but I don't know when they will be acceptable to the public. Some journalist will coin the phrase "Flying Chernobyl" and scare the bejeebers out of everybody.

I'd guess at least 50 years before affordable orbital flight, maybe 100 years, maybe more. Getting into orbit is the final major transportation challenge for mankind. Once you're in orbit, you can easily go anywhere in the universe, given enough time, fuel, and supplies (details, details).

[benhuset]

My money is on space elevators to get me off this rock.

hopefully by 2020.

The materials are 'almost' off the shelf now.

--Ben